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Teleworking to Triple by 2010 The numbers of people working from home or on the move could reach over 27 million by 2010, concludes the latest EMERGENCE study, Modelling eWork in Europe: estimates, models and forecasts from the EMERGENCE Project. The study draws on the results of the EMERGENCE 18-country employer study and combines them with data from European labour force surveys to develop a model of eWork. It concentrates on ‘individual’ forms of eWork, which take place away from traditional office premises. Whilst the results of the survey show that ‘collective’ forms, which take place on remote office premises, are even more important in the European economy, official data are not yet available which enable these to be modelled effectively over time, so no forecasts could be developed for these types of eWork. Four distinct types of ‘individual’ eWorkers are identified in the study: Telehomeworkers. These are employees who use a computer and telecommunications link to conduct their work and who are based wholly or mainly in their homes. Their numbers are estimated at 810,000 in 2000. Multilocational eWorkers. This is a much more numerous group, estimated at 3.7 million in 2000, including employees who alternate between a home and an office workstation, or who work nomadically from multiple locations. eLancers. These are self-employed workers who supply business services to clients using a computer and a telecommunications link, estimated at 1.45 million in 2000. The eEnabled self-employed. This category was not included in the EMERGENCE survey, which concentrated on the remote supply of business services, but can nevertheless be regarded as a form of eWork. It is made up of self-employed people who work from their homes but who do not supply business services. These people may be doing anything from managing a farm to running an electrical repair business. They are included in this category only if they require computers and on-line links to their customers in order to be able to function effectively. Using the UK Labour Force Survey to determine what proportion of self-employed people in each sector were eEnabled, it was possible to use data on self-employment from the European Community Labour Force Survey (CLFS) to estimate that this group stood at some 3.08 million in 2000. Adding these figures (summarised in Table 1) produces an estimated EU total of 9.04 million eWorkers in 2000. Interestingly enough, when compared with other estimates of eWorkers produced by other means, there is a strong convergence, suggesting that the EMERGENCE methodology, despite involving some rather large assumptions, is relatively sound. One alternative approach was to take the overall figures on homeworking from the CLFS and use data from the UK to estimate how many homeworkers in each sector were likely to be using ICTs to carry out their work. This produced a slightly higher but not dissimilar estimate of 9,830,000 eWorkers (including irregular eWorkers). This can be compared with an estimate from the ECATT project that in 1999 the combined total of ‘regular’ plus ‘supplementary’ teleworkers in Europe stood at 9,009,000.[1]
Looking to the future, the EMERGENCE team developed forecasts for the spread of each of these forms of eWork over the next decade, summarised in Table 2. In the study, the effect of a general growth in employment was separated from the effect of increasing ICT diffusion. If current employment trends continue, approximately a million new eWorkers are likely to appear over the ten-year period. However, if technological and organisational change continue at current rates, there is likely to be considerable growth in eWork which, combined with the effects of employment growth, will effectively triple the numbers, to reach 27.12 million by 2010. By far the largest part of this growth will involve multilocational eWorking by employees, forecast to top 14.3 million. This is generally regarded as the most desirable form of eWorking. For the employee it offers the security of a permanent contract whilst reducing the risks of social isolation and poor career prospects associated with telehomeworking. For the employer it offers flexibility, improved retention and loyalty and efficiency gains. This is followed by eEnabled self-employment, which is predicted to grow to 6.6 million. This form is likely to grow more slowly and reach a plateau sometime after 2010. The reason for this is that, unlike eLancing, self-employment in sectors other than business services shows no evidence of expansion across the EU. Once ITC penetration has reached its maximum in this group, there is therefore no further scope for growth.
The study concludes that the willingness of employers and workers to embrace technological and organisational change will be a decisive factor in shaping future working patterns in the EU. Modelling eWork in Europe: Estimates, models and forecasts from the EMERGENCE project, |
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